Will a reliable source reveal the existence of a zettascale computer before 2025?
34
1kṀ25k
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
NO

The advancement of computational power has been guided by various metrics, including FLOPS (Floating Point Operations per Second). Zettascale computing represents a major leap, equivalent to 10^21 FLOPS. It goes well beyond the current exascale systems, opening new horizons in fields like climate modeling, medical research, and artificial intelligence. Minifloat precision refers to the use of reduced precision floating-point numbers, which can be a trade-off between computation speed and accuracy. Having at least 8 bits for the minifloat precision can help ensure that the system has a reasonable level of accuracy while still enabling high-speed computation.

Will reliable sources reveal the existence of a zettascale computer with a minifloat precision of at least 8 bits before January 1, 2025?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1, 2025, a zettascale computer meeting the following criteria is revealed by reliable sources:

  1. Computational Power: The computer should be capable of achieving zettascale computing, equivalent to 10^21 FLOP/s or higher. This will refer to theoretical peak performance FLOP. Reported sparse FLOP will not count.

  2. Contiguous computer: the computer must be a single contiguous supercomputer, for example inside of a single data center, rather than being a set of computers loosely connected across space or time.

  3. Minifloat Precision: The FLOP/s will be measured in minifloat precision of at least 8 bits, allowing for a balance between computational speed and accuracy. For example, FP8 and FP16 are acceptable binary interchange formats to use for resolution.

  4. Independent Revelation: The computer’s capabilities must be revealed by reliable source, such as statements from a major tech firm, reporting from knowledgable journalists, or highly reputable third party bloggers. If there is credible reason to dispute the veracity of a claim about a particular computing system, this question will wait until more evidence has come to light before resolving.

I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts in the field of high-performance computing, to ensure that the criteria are met and that the zettascale computer with at least 8 bits of minifloat precision has indeed been revealed by a reliable source.

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