Will the Key Bridge be repaired and reopened within 6 weeks?
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resolved May 8
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NO

Last night, a container ship smashed into the Francis Scott Key bridge.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-bridge-baltimore-collapse-container-ship/

Last time a major transportation artery collapsed, our civilization magically managed to recover our ability to build things fast, and reopened a collapsed portion of I-95 after just 12 days: https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-shapiro-gets-stuff-done-reopening-i-95-in-just-12-days-investing-in-infrastructure-delivering-the-largest-investment-in-state-parks-in-decades/

By contrast, it took my local government 4 freaking years to build a small bike path.

Obviously, the Key Bridge is a much bigger lift than a collapsed portion of I-95. Will we once again demonstrate we can build things fast when we truly want to?

Will resolve YES if there's at least one lane of traffic flowing in each direction across the span where the Key bridge was.

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The example from the description of the I-95 'bridge' incident does not seem comparable. A better comp (nothing is exact, of course) would probably be the 2007 I-35W Mississippi River bridge collapse. It took approximately one year to reopen.

I think more interesting market durations would be 3, 6, 9, and 12 months.

If I'm reading the wikipedia article right, it took ~5 years to build it in the first place. I'm sure construction techniques have moved on since then, but damn, that's gonna be a lot of work https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_Bridge_(Washington,_D.C.)#Construction

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Further, maintenance work started in 2016 was still ongoing in 2019 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_Bridge_(Washington,_D.C.)#2016_rehabilitation

@retr0id Wrong Key Bridge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_(Baltimore)

But, it did take 5 years to build.

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