When will a bridge like the Francis Scott Key Bridge In Baltimore be accessible again?
When will a bridge like the Francis Scott Key Bridge In Baltimore be accessible again?
58
2.8kṀ16kJun 28
81%
Summer Solstice 2031
72%
Summer Solstice 2030
44%
Summer Solstice 2029
25%
Summer Solstice 2028
12%
Summer Solstice 2027
6%
Spring Equinox 2027
1.8%
Summer Solstice 2026
1%
Summer Solstice 2025
1%
Christmas 2025
When will the bridge either be repaired, or a new bridge constructed that a car can drive across in it's place?
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The original construction took almost 5 years from permitting (June 1972 - March 1977); it was already behind schedule and over budget when the permit was issued. Bids and approvals were 1970-1971. A couple options in the 2029-2031 range might make sense given that baseline, possibly along with one or more options for "even slower than the original".
@EvanDaniel That's a big timespan, there's some arguments for 'faster than the original', given that's it's now a big political will, but this could take awhile.
bought Ṁ10 Summer Solstice 2029 YES1y
@EvanDaniel Anyone can add answers, I just filled it out a little bit. Don't think we need more than 1/year granularity further out.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What type of water crossing will replace the FSK Bridge in Baltimore?
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Will any California bridges receive additional physical protection due to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse?
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