When will a bridge like the Francis Scott Key Bridge In Baltimore be accessible again?
51
371
2.8K
Dec 31
71%
Summer Solstice 2029
37%
Summer Solstice 2028
23%
Summer Solstice 2027
22%
Spring Equinox 2027
11%
Christmas 2025
9%
Summer Solstice 2026
7%
Summer Solstice 2025
1.7%
Christmas 2024
1%
Halloween 2024

When will the bridge either be repaired, or a new bridge constructed that a car can drive across in it's place?

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The original construction took almost 5 years from permitting (June 1972 - March 1977); it was already behind schedule and over budget when the permit was issued. Bids and approvals were 1970-1971. A couple options in the 2029-2031 range might make sense given that baseline, possibly along with one or more options for "even slower than the original".

@EvanDaniel That's a big timespan, there's some arguments for 'faster than the original', given that's it's now a big political will, but this could take awhile.

@Fedor Well the other argument that we need some longer time span options is simply that the longest dated one you have is still only trading at ~ 50%! Maybe just add another longer-dated option and see where it trades?

bought Ṁ10 Summer Solstice 2029 YES

@EvanDaniel Anyone can add answers, I just filled it out a little bit. Don't think we need more than 1/year granularity further out.

bought Ṁ20 Spring Equinox 2027 YES

What is the summer equinox?

@AndrewHebb Just me being a dumbass (I mean the summer solstice)

Marc Andreessen predicts never

Will every market after the repair/rebuild date resolve to Yes? Or just the closest one?

@AlexBeal Every markets after the repair/build. Those options would all have the bridge 'accessible again'

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