Will existing markets be converted to CFMM?
Mini
16
Ṁ892
resolved Jan 1
Resolved as
50%
This market resolves yes if open markets are converted from DPM to CPMM during 2022. Markets that are not converted because they are closed or closing soon do not count against this. This market resolves no if no markets are converted in 2022. If some but not all open markets are converted, for example based on size, popularity, pool, etc, this market resolves 50%. Mar 24, 9:56pm: this market will still resolve yes if markets are closed during conversion for technical reasons. Apr 5, 5:17pm: this market resolves 50% if yes/no markets are converted and free response markets are not, based on "some but not all" clause above. May 19, 8:57am: I will not trade further in this market and have no current position. Jun 9, 10:39pm: Since numeric/range markets did not exist when this market was opened, I will ignore them for the purpose of resolving this market.
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Oops, forgot I committed not to trade in this market. I reversed my trade. This should be at least 50% though.
From newsletter: "Dynamic parimutuel markets: All of our binary markets have finally been ported to our new fixed-payout mechanism." This market will resolve at least 50% as a result.
What would that mean?
If we do have a partial conversion soon it'd be nice if I could partially resolve the market to "at least 50%", but I guess that's a pretty niche feature request.
@Undox I doubt I would resolve 42% as that's not an option in the original resolution criteria. My intention is that C*MM is CFMM if and only if the star is an F.
I wouldn't phrase it as an "admission". I didn't consider that scenario up front. I think it is a natural consequence of the initial resolution criteria I wrote. I don't see how else the market could resolve in that scenario consistent with the resolution criteria. But I welcome advice.
The admission "this market resolves 50% if yes/no markets are converted and free response markets are not, based on "some but not all" clause above." means I think there is a small chance of this resolving at 50% because converting free response will be harder, and it is contingent on a free response CFMM scheme being used. Question: @MartinRandall - what if CFMM is deemed unsuitable for free response markets that allow new ad-hoc options and some other C*MM or even non-C*MM, but non-DPM scheme is used for them. I think 42% would be a good choice in that situation :-)
How does this resolve if all the yes/no markets are converted, but free response ones stay DPM?
I'm thinking about it...
Sucks being contrarian voice in long term market.
I think it's possible! While a DPM market is closed, you can convert by conserving everyone's Payout if Correct and removing all liquidity. Then people can put down liquidity to improve upon the closed market by letting people exit their position if they want without harming anyone else's payout.
Manifold could create M$ to automatically compensate anyone who would lose out from the conversion.
I very much doubt it. I think it is mathematically not possible to do that in a way people will perceive as fair. It might mean that retrospectively some people will have the profit they did make in the past from selling YES/NO cut if the new formula figures out they would have got less.

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