Will existing markets be converted to CFMM?
16
207
แน892แน45
resolved Jan 1
Resolved as
50%1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves yes if open markets are converted from DPM to CPMM during 2022. Markets that are not converted because they are closed or closing soon do not count against this.
This market resolves no if no markets are converted in 2022.
If some but not all open markets are converted, for example based on size, popularity, pool, etc, this market resolves 50%.
Mar 24, 9:56pm: this market will still resolve yes if markets are closed during conversion for technical reasons.
Apr 5, 5:17pm: this market resolves 50% if yes/no markets are converted and free response markets are not, based on "some but not all" clause above.
May 19, 8:57am: I will not trade further in this market and have no current position.
Jun 9, 10:39pm: Since numeric/range markets did not exist when this market was opened, I will ignore them for the purpose of resolving this market.
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@Undox I doubt I would resolve 42% as that's not an option in the original resolution criteria. My intention is that C*MM is CFMM if and only if the star is an F.
I wouldn't phrase it as an "admission". I didn't consider that scenario up front. I think it is a natural consequence of the initial resolution criteria I wrote. I don't see how else the market could resolve in that scenario consistent with the resolution criteria. But I welcome advice.
The admission "this market resolves 50% if yes/no markets are converted and free response markets are not, based on "some but not all" clause above." means I think there is a small chance of this resolving at 50% because converting free response will be harder, and it is contingent on a free response CFMM scheme being used.
Question: @MartinRandall - what if CFMM is deemed unsuitable for free response markets that allow new ad-hoc options and some other C*MM or even non-C*MM, but non-DPM scheme is used for them. I think 42% would be a good choice in that situation :-)
I think it's possible! While a DPM market is closed, you can convert by conserving everyone's Payout if Correct and removing all liquidity. Then people can put down liquidity to improve upon the closed market by letting people exit their position if they want without harming anyone else's payout.
I very much doubt it. I think it is mathematically not possible to do that in a way people will perceive as fair. It might mean that retrospectively some people will have the profit they did make in the past from selling YES/NO cut if the new formula figures out they would have got less.
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