Austin avatar
closes Jan 1, 2028
Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Caroline Pham, currently one of 5 commissioners on the CFTC.

Background: Caroline was the dissenting opinion with regards to how the CFTC approached reviewing Kalshi's event contracts. She also has the most Twitter followers out of the 5 current commissioners, and thus might be more likely to enjoy posting on Manifold.

Inspired by @RichardHanania's How to Legalize Prediction Markets. See also /SG/will-kalshi-receive-regulatory-appr

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

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Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Manifold Markets

@CarolineDPham How do you feel about insider trading?