Will at least one judge find that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
Basic
31
Ṁ7341
resolved Dec 20
Resolved
YES

Resolves positive if there is any court judgment anywhere in the USA in which one or more individual judges holds that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This resolves positive even if the opinion of the court collectively holds that Trump can run, as long as there is a dissent from at least one judge in the court that he cannot.

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predicted YES
bought Ṁ90 YES at 97%
predicted YES

@strutheo does this resolve @B ?

predicted YES

@strutheo I don’t know why it wouldn’t. Actually it’s one of the only markets on the topic that needs a resolution. If the creator doesn’t respond we call always ask a mod to resolve. This one seems clear cut.

predicted YES

I count about 22 active cases. Seems much more likely than 36% that at least one judge somewhere will rule YES.

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker

predicted NO

@makeworld But several cases have already been dismissed or ruled in favor of Trump and I don’t think these are independent probabilities. At some point what some judges have ruled will have an effect on what others are likely to rule.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Looking at similar, stronger questions tells me this market is/was too low.

Also see the much stronger version of this question: