Resolves positive if there is any court judgment anywhere in the USA in which one or more individual judges holds that Trump cannot run for president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This resolves positive even if the opinion of the court collectively holds that Trump can run, as long as there is a dissent from at least one judge in the court that he cannot.
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thanks for playing everyone, this one is super clear cut https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf
colorado removed him from ballot due to 14th https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/politics/trump-colorado-supreme-court-14th-amendment/index.html
@strutheo I don’t know why it wouldn’t. Actually it’s one of the only markets on the topic that needs a resolution. If the creator doesn’t respond we call always ask a mod to resolve. This one seems clear cut.
I count about 22 active cases. Seems much more likely than 36% that at least one judge somewhere will rule YES.
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/current-projects/the-trump-trials/section-3-litigation-tracker
@makeworld But several cases have already been dismissed or ruled in favor of Trump and I don’t think these are independent probabilities. At some point what some judges have ruled will have an effect on what others are likely to rule.
SoS will not sign onto this themselves at all so it will have to go to court if trump opponents want it to go anywhere https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/14/politics/14th-amendment-secretaries-of-state-trump/index.html
