Will a "pocket pardon" from a US president be revealed by end of 2024?
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The existence of the pardon must be revealed, but it's not necessary for the text of the pardon to be revealed. It can be a pardon from any president. Regular publicly declared pardons are excluded. Jul 7, 7:29am: It's not necessary that the pardon be found constitutional for this market to resolve yes.
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I think the main argument for YES is Trump and I don't think he has the self control to keep quiet about it if he has one. He's certainly not been shy about his claim to have unclassified documents by thinking about it.

Arbitrage https://manifold.markets/BTE/did-the-fbi-search-of-maralago-unco

predicts NO
Reassuring number here
@MartinRandall A little too reassuring. Okay, I'm selling off a bit.
Wait, is this (theoretically) a thing? I'm not American but I assumed pardons had to be made publicly.
predicts NO
@AngolaMaldives The supreme court has never ruled on it, so the answer is not known. My reading is that it works be found unconstitutional but it could still be an effective delaying tactic for a law-breaking president. I would resolve this market "yes" if a pardon is revealed, without waiting to see if it would later be found unconstitutional.
Updating initial odds.

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