Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the New Social Contract (NSC) party secures at least one seat in the House of Representatives following the next Dutch general election, which is expected to occur in late 2025. Official election results published by the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad) will serve as the primary source for resolution. If the NSC does not win any seats, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The New Social Contract (NSC) is a Dutch political party founded in August 2023 by Pieter Omtzigt, a former member of the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA). The party emphasizes good governance, social security, and a critical stance on European Union integration. In the November 2023 general election, the NSC secured 20 seats, making it the fourth-largest party in the House of Representatives. (en.wikipedia.org)

In April 2025, Omtzigt stepped down from politics, and Nicolien van Vroonhoven, a former CDA member and experienced politician, assumed leadership of the NSC. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

The political landscape in the Netherlands is currently volatile. In June 2025, the ruling coalition government collapsed after the Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrew over disagreements on asylum policy, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Dick Schoof. This development has prompted the scheduling of a snap general election, expected to take place in late 2025. (ft.com)

Given these dynamics, the NSC's performance in the upcoming election is uncertain. While the party previously secured a significant number of seats, leadership changes and the evolving political environment may influence voter support. Traders should monitor opinion polls and political developments as the election approaches to inform their predictions.

• Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a party merger involving NSC:

  • The market will resolve to No if NSC is not part of the official name of the party that secures at least one seat.

  • The market will resolve to Yes if NSC is part of the official name of the party that secures at least one seat (e.g., CDA-NSC or a similar formation).