Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Party for Freedom (PVV) secures at least 30 seats in the House of Representatives following the Dutch general election scheduled for October 29, 2025. Official election results published by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) will serve as the definitive source for resolution. (en.wikipedia.org)

Background

The PVV, led by Geert Wilders, won 37 seats in the 2023 general election, marking a significant increase from previous years. (en.wikipedia.org) However, recent political developments have influenced the party's standing. In June 2025, the PVV withdrew from the ruling coalition, leading to the collapse of the government and prompting early elections. (reuters.com)

Considerations

Opinion polls following the government's collapse have shown fluctuations in PVV's support. Some surveys indicate a decline, with projections as low as 30 seats, while others suggest a rebound to 33 seats. (en.wikipedia.org) These variations highlight the volatility of voter sentiment leading up to the election.