Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the following events occurring before or on October 29, 2025:

• PVV will become the biggest party: Resolves to "Yes" if the Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the highest number of seats in the House of Representatives during the 2025 Dutch general election. Official results will be verified through the Dutch Electoral Council's publications.

• VVD will pick a new party leader: Resolves to "Yes" if the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) officially announces a new party leader before election day. Confirmation will be based on official VVD communications or reputable news sources.

• PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day: Resolves to "Yes" if the alliance between the Labour Party (PvdA) and GroenLinks (GL) officially adopts a new name prior to October 29, 2025. Verification will be through official party announcements or credible news outlets.

Background

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on October 29, 2025, following the collapse of the Schoof cabinet on June 3, 2025. (reuters.com)

• PVV: The Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, became the largest party in the House of Representatives after the 2023 general election. (en.wikipedia.org)

• VVD: The People's Party for Freedom and Democracy is a center-right political party in the Netherlands. (en.wikipedia.org)

• PvdA/GL: The Labour Party (PvdA) and GroenLinks (GL) formed an alliance known as GroenLinks–PvdA. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• PVV's Position: While PVV led the 2023 elections, its withdrawal from the coalition in June 2025 over asylum policy disagreements may influence its standing in the upcoming election. (reuters.com)

• VVD Leadership: As of June 2025, Dilan Yeşilgöz serves as the leader of VVD. Any leadership change before the election would be significant. (en.wikipedia.org)

• PvdA/GL Merger Discussions: There have been ongoing discussions about a possible merger of PvdA and GL into a single party. Members are set to vote on this decision on June 21, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)

Recent Developments in Dutch Politics:

• Netherlands to hold election on October 29, ANP reports

• Populist Wilders breaks Dutch coalition to push immigration agenda in elections

• El Parlamento de Países Bajos pide elecciones lo antes posible tras la salida de Wilders

• Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the condition 'PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day':

  • The new name must be known (e.g., through an official party announcement as per original criteria).

  • It is not required for the new name to be on the election ballot for this condition to be met.

• Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Migration will be the biggest topic again in the campaigns':

  • This will be resolved based on polling data from the week before the election.

  • An example source for this data is the 1Vandaag Panel.