Duplicate of this market:
For the purposes of this market:
"Another" means it happens after market creation (Feb. 11th).
"Notable" means any of the following:
At least 3 of CNN, the New York Times, NBC, Reuters, AP News, Fox News, USA Today, BBC, ABC, CBS, WaPo, HuffPost, Vox, or NPR call the accident a "crash" in coverage,
The accident leaves 10 or more dead or 15 or more injured (including on the ground) and one of the above outlets calls it a crash,
Someone with a Wikipedia page is killed.
"US" means that the plane was in US airspace at the time of the crash, or international airspace having taken off from the US.
"Plane" includes (but is not limited to) jumbo jets, helicopters, private aircraft, cargo planes, commercial aircraft, medevac flights, etc. — anything that achieves the "notable" standard is enough for a YES resolution.
"Crash" typically means a plane hits ground violently (or the ocean, or trees, or buildings, etc.). It does not include other kinds of accident (such as, for example, a plane colliding with a vehicle, an on-ground fire, a cargo hold fire with a successful emergency landing on a runway, or in-air turbulence that results in deaths), but would include particularly violent on-ground accidents that involve a collision at speed (such as overshooting the runway and hitting a building).
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I think this resolves YES:
Military jet crashes near San Diego Harbor naval base; 2 Navy pilots rescued https://www.cbsnews.com/news/navy-pilots-rescued-fighter-jet-crash-san-diego-harbor/
Fighter jet crashes into San Diego Harbor, 2 pilots rescued: Fire officials https://abcnews.go.com/US/fighter-jet-crashes-san-diego-harbor-2-pilots/story?id=118747366
U.S. Navy jet crashes into San Diego Harbor; crew ejects safely https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-02-12/navy-jet-crashes-into-san-diego-harbor-pilots-eject
@Marnix I was seeing a bunch of tankers and surveillance planes heading down off the coast of mexico a few days ago - maybe they're training more strenuously under the new administration and pushing the aviators/equipment further.
There were 0 during Biden, I understood it had been over a decade since there was a plane crash. (heard).
@TiredCliche One of my favorite things about prediction markets is the way that they can be used to operationalize any belief. If you have a theory that God is punishing the US you can make it a demonstrable thing and also demonstrate your level of credence via money put down. Anyway just wanted to thank you for having an unusual-for-this-platform opinion and staking internet points on it (assuming that your comment is sincere)
@cherrvak I'm currently the most invested in YES, so I think my money is where my mouth is!
And yes, I am sincere. The U.S. cancelling all aid payments and then having several plane crashes and several rolling natural disasters is a signal in the noise, to me at least. I understand why others may see it differently.