So far, 2026 has been quite deadly in terms of rail accidents, but not particularly deadly in terms of aviation accidents. Will more people die in plane crashes than train crashes by the end of this year?

This market will resolve YES if more people die in aviation accidents, NO if more people die in rail accidents.

I will judge the number of deaths by adding up the number of deaths occurring before midnight local time on 01/01/27 on both of the wikipedia lists linked below. I'll do this sometime in January in order to allow the lists to update with accurate figures if accidents occurred right at the end of the year. Crashes can refer to any kind of accident involving planes/helicopters and trains/trams/metros, including people struck by debris from incidents or similar. If the number is on the list, I'm taking it unless it's clearly false - no vandalizing wikipedia at the last minute to add a million deaths so you win some mana!

Taking a look over the last few years, in 2025 and 2024 this question would've resolved YES, in 2023 NO.

I'll acknowledge that these lists are incredibly biased and a small derailment in the UK is going to be included whereas the same accident occurring in a smaller country probably won't, but oh well, got to draw a line somewhere.

As of 17 Feb (when I made this market), we're at 115 rail deaths and 27 aviation deaths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft#2026

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rail_accidents_(2020%E2%80%93present)