This market uses a nonstandard mechanism that multiplies the odds of the underlying event by 5x. Please read the full description before trading.

For fairness, and because of the nonstandard mechanism, I will not trade on any market in this Set.

The reason I made this mechanism is because I noticed that due to the multiplier mechanism other multiplied odds markets tend to have their results N/A, which reverts all trades on the market, this means there is no reward for trading information even if the market does resolve correctly. This way all 5 of the markets should always have the same odds, and for one of them trades on it will not revert. There is no mechanism to force trading on all 5 markets, which means they can (but shouldn't) separate.

Resolution Criteria

This market asks whether any part of the United States federal government will experience a formally acknowledged shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations for at least 48 consecutive hours before January 1, 2027.

Qualifying Conditions

• The shutdown must begin after this Set is created. Shutdowns or funding lapses that began before its creation do not count.

• A full federal shutdown or a partial shutdown affecting one or more federally funded departments or agencies may qualify.

• The shutdown must result from an actual lapse in appropriations. Administrative closures, holidays, weather events, technical outages, and voluntary suspensions of services do not qualify.

• The entire 48-hour period must be completed before 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time on January 1, 2027. A shutdown that begins before this deadline but reaches 48 hours after it does not qualify.

• A shutdown that ends before reaching 48 hours does not prevent a later shutdown from qualifying.

Measuring the 48-Hour Period

The 48-hour period begins at the official start time identified by the Office of Management and Budget, the Office of Personnel Management, Congress, or another clearly authoritative federal source as the time when a lapse in appropriations caused shutdown procedures to begin.

The underlying event occurs if a qualifying shutdown continues for at least 48 consecutive hours from that officially recognized start time. If funding is restored before 48 consecutive hours have elapsed, that shutdown does not qualify.

Resolution will rely primarily on official announcements from OMB or OPM. Reputable reporting from AP, Reuters, or Bloomberg may be used as corroborating evidence when necessary.

5× Odds-Amplification Mechanism

This Set contains five numbered markets with identical criteria.

• If the underlying 48-hour shutdown event occurs, all five markets resolve YES.

• If the underlying event does not occur, I will ask @FairlyRandom to generate a uniformly distributed integer from 1 through 5 after trading closes.

• The market corresponding to the number drawn resolves NO.

• The other four markets resolve N/A.

One public random draw will apply to the entire Set. The draw will determine the selected market without any discretion by the market creator.

Before the draw, the five markets are symmetric and should have the same fair probability. The mechanism multiplies the odds of the underlying event by exactly five. If pp is the ordinary probability of the underlying event, the corresponding amplified probability is:

5p1+4p.\frac{5p}{1+4p}.

For small values of pp, this is approximately five times the underlying probability.

Traders should understand that if the shutdown event does not occur, four markets will resolve N/A and one will resolve NO. Manifold’s normal N/A rules will apply.

Disclaimer

This description was partially generated with AI assistance. The market creator is responsible for reviewing and clarifying the criteria before trading begins and for resolving all five markets according to the final published rules.