Resolves based on any of the following:
They do a "Why I Left the Left"–style article or otherwise directly state a right-wing pivot
Their listed party affiliation changes (or "ideology" tag is added to, if applicable) on Wikipedia, and remains so for over a month
Vibe-based Manifold poll following some event suggesting a significant movement rightwards, with the question "Did <x> pivot to the right from (date)?" And the answers "Yes," "No," "and "See Results" (A person can be voted on multiple times; NO resolutions will only come at market close).
If all else fails, my personal judgement
I will not bet in this market due to its subjective resolution criteria.
1,000People are also trading
@KJW_01294 Hot goss: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/gavin-newsom-podcast-20213385.php Second transphobia he’s done in two episodes.
my honest guess: as he continues these views, he’ll face sharp criticism from the sharp left, then will run rightward crying about closed-minded progressives
https://bsky.app/profile/governor.ca.gov/post/3lohxbi7xgs2o he’s using right wing dog whistles now! am I really the only one who sees this?
@KJW_01294 https://youtu.be/4Dm3diA6z08 Newsom says he wants to revise the state law allowing trans people to compete
Also calling democrats the weak party.
Had it been put on here, I'd have resolved Steak and Shake YES at this point — though previously mostly apolitical, they're making very clear, very politically blatant messaging moves towards the right lately (mostly towards RFK fans with their seed oil messaging). I feel there's more than enough general MAGA-adjacent messaging for it to have gone YES, though I'd probably have opened a poll for it just to stay on the safe side.