For each option, on October 1st, 2026, I will make a poll with the question, "Has the Democratic party become significantly more {x} since the 2024 election?", where x is the option label. Each poll will have yes, no, and see results as options. Each option will resolve YES if yes receives more votes than no, and NO otherwise.
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The Democrats are already very pro-rule-of-law as a response to Trump, who is explicitly against it (as is the current SCOTUS and much of GOP). I don't really know what pivot they could make to become more in favor of it.
But most people on Manifold don't actually know what the phrase "rule of law" means (as evidenced by a previous market where people thought it was the same thing as "law and order"), so this is really about whatever Manifolders in 2026 will interpret the phrase to mean.
@JosephReichert yeah, me too.
On one hand, Democrats aren't too keen on freedom of speech when people are blatantly lying or engaging in hate speech. On the other hand, Trump is certainly going to spend the next four years attacking the press, and Democrats will rally around freedom of apeech as a way to defend them.
@DanHomerick I might have a slightly different perspective. I can see this polarizing around EDI , “cancel culture”, and religious language in public institutions. I think each side would like to limit expression, just in different arenas.
@JosephReichert agreed.
As a market, this one is pretty hard to predict. Fairly judging if the party moves one way or the other on a "it's complicated" axis is hard. But this is going to be resolved via a poll, asking random manifolders to think back two years and compare. That's going to be noisy, even for what should be a clearly defined shift.
It'll probably swing on whichever vaguely "free speech" item is most recently in the news when the poll is posted.
I guess my strategy for a lot of these should be "push it towards 50/50, because it'll resolve on a coin flip..."
Interesting question!