Which of the following Virginia counties will Nikki Haley win in the March 5 Republican primary? (Multiple choice)
19
5.5k
resolved Mar 6
Resolved
YES
Fairfax
Resolved
YES
Charlottesville
Resolved
YES
Williamsburg
Resolved
YES
Arlington
Resolved
YES
Alexandria City
Resolved
YES
Albemarle
Resolved
N/A
Richmond
Resolved
NO
Loudoun
Resolved
NO
Chesapeake City
Resolved
NO
Henrico

Inspired by this tweet:

Based on NYT results. In the event of any uncertainty, I’ll use the county or state sites to resolve.

Feel free to add other counties of interest. Ones Rubio won or did well in 2016 will probably be more competitive: https://www.politico.com/2016-election/primary/results/map/president/virginia/

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NYT as usual has stopped updating, meaning I have to rely on the state website, which shows 97% reporting for Albemarle and 99% for Loudoun. If you have any objections to resolving Albemarle Yes and Loudoun No, let me know by noon PT. https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/ALBEMARLECOUNTY/elections/2024_March_Republican_Primary

NYT as usual has stopped updating, meaning I have to rely on the state website, which shows 97% reporting for Albemarle and 99% for Loudoun. If you have any objections to resolving Albemarle Yes and Loudoun No, let me know by noon PT. https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/ALBEMARLECOUNTY/elections/2024_March_Republican_Primary

The tweet prediction in the description is remarkably close to the actual results.

Richmond

Presumably this is Richmond County @MarkHamill

@nikki I should have specified for that one, but yes.

The City looks like it’s going to be more competitive, so feel free to add it if you’d like

@MarkHamill The tweet seems to be talking about the city

I had thought it was the city

bought Ṁ500 Henrico NO

@JamesF I’ll N/A, sorry for the confusion

bought Ṁ100 Arlington YES

@MarkHamill Their county election dashboard shows the early voters: Results & Data – Arlington County VA Voting and Elections (arlingtonva.gov).

There were 5,689 early votes on the Democratic side, and 2,000 on the Republican side.

For comparison, the vote in the 2020 presidential election was about 80% Democratic.

Biden: 105,344

Trump: 22,318

Jorgensen: 1,836

Write-in: 1,201

candidate-history.pdf (arlingtonva.gov)

I'm not sure what to make of one poll with a small sample size, but it seems there's a significant number of Democrats planning to vote for Haley in the Republican primary: https://www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll_politics_feb_2024

Including them, Trump is only ahead 51-43.