Inspired by this tweet:
Based on NYT results. In the event of any uncertainty, I’ll use the county or state sites to resolve.
Feel free to add other counties of interest. Ones Rubio won or did well in 2016 will probably be more competitive: https://www.politico.com/2016-election/primary/results/map/president/virginia/
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NYT as usual has stopped updating, meaning I have to rely on the state website, which shows 97% reporting for Albemarle and 99% for Loudoun. If you have any objections to resolving Albemarle Yes and Loudoun No, let me know by noon PT. https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/ALBEMARLECOUNTY/elections/2024_March_Republican_Primary
NYT as usual has stopped updating, meaning I have to rely on the state website, which shows 97% reporting for Albemarle and 99% for Loudoun. If you have any objections to resolving Albemarle Yes and Loudoun No, let me know by noon PT. https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/ALBEMARLECOUNTY/elections/2024_March_Republican_Primary
@MarkHamill Their county election dashboard shows the early voters: Results & Data – Arlington County VA Voting and Elections (arlingtonva.gov).
There were 5,689 early votes on the Democratic side, and 2,000 on the Republican side.
For comparison, the vote in the 2020 presidential election was about 80% Democratic.
Biden: 105,344
Trump: 22,318
Jorgensen: 1,836
Write-in: 1,201
candidate-history.pdf (arlingtonva.gov)
I'm not sure what to make of one poll with a small sample size, but it seems there's a significant number of Democrats planning to vote for Haley in the Republican primary: https://www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll_politics_feb_2024
Including them, Trump is only ahead 51-43.