What will the difference be between Trump’s vote share in the 2024 Iowa caucus and Biden’s vote share in the NH primary?
Basic
10
Ṁ6919resolved Jan 26
100%99.6%
10-14.9 points
0.0%
0-4.9 points
0.0%
5-9.9 points
0.1%
15-19.9 points
0.1%
20-24.9 points
0.0%
25-29.9 points
0.0%
30-34.9 points
0.0%
35-39.9 points
0.0%
40 or more points
0.0%Other
Market will resolve to the difference between Trump's Iowa performance and Biden's New Hampshire performance including write ins (higher minus lower).
Iowa is considered to be Trump's weakest state vote-share wise due to the number of candidates going 'all in on Iowa' and his 2016 loss to Ted Cruz. Meanwhile, Biden isn't on the ballot in New Hampshire, like LBJ in 1968. Between the incumbents, who wins this race to the bottom, and by how much?
This market will continue if either or both of the candidates drops out. I will participate, but adhere to the results on AP to the nearest tenth.
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