Okay, that was a bit of a scare, but it looks like the unallocated write ins are gone and Biden stands at 64.0%. I extended trading to 11:59 to allow for any additional discrepancies uncovered by Twitter mavens. Really there shouldn’t be any with an election of 110K people, but somehow NH might find a way.

@MarkHamill Does anyone know why CNN's percentage is different? They show Biden with 14 more votes than AP is showing but they have him at 65.5%

Resolved based on Biden mathematically not possibly getting >65 according to AP results and very very likely getting >60 according to AP + DDHQ + the NH SOS website where he has 77061 votes. If this was premature, I’ll get a mod to unresolve.

@MarkHamill CNN has him at 65.5% and 79,740 votes.

@SemioticRivalry I’m not sure why they do, they have a higher vote total for Biden at 79,470 than even the SOS.

This seems pretty authoritative but I waited for AP results to get Biden above 60% (which happened an hour ago) due to the resolution criteria. If this was premature, I’ll ask a mod to unresolve.

@SemioticRivalry There’s some uncertainty being raised on Twitter now, so I’ll ask a mod to unresolve.

@MarkHamill For what it's worth NYT's showing Biden at 64.0% with almost no unprocessed write-ins left. AP is as well. I agree the resolution was premature though.

Biden's been winning close to 90% of the write-in votes so far by my math. If he wins 90% of the currently unprocessed write-in votes he's going to be really close to 65%

@Arky Currently, 89.7% of the write-ins have been for Biden. If the 4% of uncounted votes remaining are distributed similarly to those already counted, Biden needs 91.1% of the unprocessed write-ins to get to 65% of the total votes.

According to 538, Biden doesn't actually have more than 70% of the vote right now. There are still some other write-ins.

@PlasmaBallin I’ll be using this to resolve, although DDHQ is ahead https://apnews.com/hub/ap-new-hampshire-election-2024-results

Uh oh

We have our first write in poll

@MarkHamill what does this poll mean? Why do the numbers fall far short of 100%?

@NicoDelon "In the Democratic Primary, voters were presented with candidates Marianne Williamson, Dean Phillips, or a “someone else” option, where they could write in or vocalize which candidate they planned on voting for. A plurality of Democratic Primary voters (44%) are undecided, while 27% plan to write in Joe Biden, 15% plan to vote for Dean Phillips, 10% for Marianne Williamson, and 5% for someone else.

Kimball notes, “As Biden is not officially on the ballot in New Hampshire, Democratic Primary voters appear to be confused on which candidate to support and how to vote for them.”
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-haley-surges-to-second-place-while-trump-maintains-lead/

@MarkHamill Oh ok. With 44% undecided it's hard to know what to make of those numbers. I also think it's bad practice (from them not you) to post those numbers without including the 'undecided' proportion.

I genuinely didn't hear about him not being on the ballot until today. What the hell lmao

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