Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024?
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Dec 31
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They don't need to donate their fortune by then, just someone who is significantly involved in the EA movement who commits to donating a significant portion of their fortune to EA causes. Forbes must estimate their net worth to be greater than $1B.

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@JonasVollmer For non-betting reasons I'd be very interested in the causes of your recent optimistic bets :-)

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I think this market is too high.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@NiplavYushtun This market is still too high.

bought Ṁ60 of YES
predicts YES

@NathanpmYoung, what is this suggesting?

Could you give some list of people who currently qualify? A non-exhaustive list is OK, just to check e.g. if people such as Vitalik Buterin (if net worth $1B), Patrick Collison, or Bill Gates count for the purposes of the question.

@dp none of those would qualify. Dustin Moskovitz, Jaan Tallinn would currently count. SBF, Gary Wang, Caroline Ellison would have counted were it not for the FTX situation. Furthermore, "one unknown person doing earning to give" would count if it was confirmed that this person was a billionaire and was donating a significant fraction to EA causes but just wished to stay anonymous (but this guy becoming known would not count as a new billionaire).
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ze2Je5GCLBDj3nDzK/how-many-ea-billionaires-five-years-from-now

@MarcusAbramovitch Does Steven Schuurman qualify?

@MarcusAbramovitch stupid nitpick: sbf and Ellison wouldn't count "were it not for the ftx situation" because the scam is how they became paper-billionaires in the first place.

@MarcusAbramovitch So if Bill Gates starts giving to alignment research in March, would he count as a new EA billionaire

predicts NO

@dp Sorry for late reply. No because his involvement is old and pre-dates this question though i did not know about him. Also, the extent of EA giving matters. It looks like a lot of his giving is to education and stuff in first world countries

predicts NO

@ShakedKoplewitz That's a fair nitpick but they would count. They were in fact billionaires and their giving was clearly to EA causes predominantly and they sold themselves as "EA billionaires" a lot.

predicts NO

@hominidan maybe, depends on how much. Im going to sell out of the market to be objective

predicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Yeah but if it weren't for running the FTX scam, they wouldn't have been.