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For non-betting reasons, I'd be quite curious about the factors behind your recent optimistic bets. like @ block blast 2.

Does Jed McCaleb count?

- he is a billionaire according to Forbes

- launched the navigation fund in 2023

- basically everything on the navigation fund website sounds like they are an EA fund ("funding must be used strategically to maximize impact"), they are planning to give $20M annually to AI safety, and recently filled funding gaps left by OP in the wild animal welfare space

@JohannesKoch Thanks, I guess this qualifies and should resolve the question as Yes.

In addition to Jed, I think there are 1-2 additional billionaires getting involved and making grants this year, although they will remain anonymous for a while longer I think

@JohannesKoch I guess that info would be enough for Marcus to resolve. I think this should make it conclusive (confirming involvement in the EA movement): https://donations.vipulnaik.com/donor.php?donor=Jed+McCaleb

So @MarcusAbramovitch recently wrote an EA Forum post on the EA funding situation that doesn't mention McCaleb: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x8JrwokZTNzgCgYts/funding-diversification-for-mid-large-ea-organizations-is

That's mostly why I've been buying a bunch of NO shares. FWIW I can see a case either way for whether McCaleb would count for this question. The argument against could be that he might not be "significantly involved in the EA movement" as per the question. Maybe he just happens to agree with some common EA opinions without wanting to become involved with some slightly zany social movement. EA hardly has a monopoly on effective giving.

@JonasVollmer For non-betting reasons I'd be very interested in the causes of your recent optimistic bets :-)

I think this market is too high.

@NiplavYushtun This market is still too high.

Ahem: https://twitter.com/albrgr/status/1613543490025291778

@NathanpmYoung, what is this suggesting?

Could you give some list of people who currently qualify? A non-exhaustive list is OK, just to check e.g. if people such as Vitalik Buterin (if net worth $1B), Patrick Collison, or Bill Gates count for the purposes of the question.

@dp none of those would qualify. Dustin Moskovitz, Jaan Tallinn would currently count. SBF, Gary Wang, Caroline Ellison would have counted were it not for the FTX situation. Furthermore, "one unknown person doing earning to give" would count if it was confirmed that this person was a billionaire and was donating a significant fraction to EA causes but just wished to stay anonymous (but this guy becoming known would not count as a new billionaire).
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ze2Je5GCLBDj3nDzK/how-many-ea-billionaires-five-years-from-now

@MarcusAbramovitch Does Steven Schuurman qualify?

@MarcusAbramovitch stupid nitpick: sbf and Ellison wouldn't count "were it not for the ftx situation" because the scam is how they became paper-billionaires in the first place.

@MarcusAbramovitch So if Bill Gates starts giving to alignment research in March, would he count as a new EA billionaire

@dp Sorry for late reply. No because his involvement is old and pre-dates this question though i did not know about him. Also, the extent of EA giving matters. It looks like a lot of his giving is to education and stuff in first world countries

@ShakedKoplewitz That's a fair nitpick but they would count. They were in fact billionaires and their giving was clearly to EA causes predominantly and they sold themselves as "EA billionaires" a lot.

@hominidan maybe, depends on how much. Im going to sell out of the market to be objective

@MarcusAbramovitch Yeah but if it weren't for running the FTX scam, they wouldn't have been.