They don't need to donate their fortune by then, just someone who is significantly involved in the EA movement who commits to donating a significant portion of their fortune to EA causes. Forbes must estimate their net worth to be greater than $1B.
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@JonasVollmer For non-betting reasons I'd be very interested in the causes of your recent optimistic bets :-)
@dp none of those would qualify. Dustin Moskovitz, Jaan Tallinn would currently count. SBF, Gary Wang, Caroline Ellison would have counted were it not for the FTX situation. Furthermore, "one unknown person doing earning to give" would count if it was confirmed that this person was a billionaire and was donating a significant fraction to EA causes but just wished to stay anonymous (but this guy becoming known would not count as a new billionaire).
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ze2Je5GCLBDj3nDzK/how-many-ea-billionaires-five-years-from-now
@MarcusAbramovitch stupid nitpick: sbf and Ellison wouldn't count "were it not for the ftx situation" because the scam is how they became paper-billionaires in the first place.
@MarcusAbramovitch So if Bill Gates starts giving to alignment research in March, would he count as a new EA billionaire
@dp Sorry for late reply. No because his involvement is old and pre-dates this question though i did not know about him. Also, the extent of EA giving matters. It looks like a lot of his giving is to education and stuff in first world countries
@ShakedKoplewitz That's a fair nitpick but they would count. They were in fact billionaires and their giving was clearly to EA causes predominantly and they sold themselves as "EA billionaires" a lot.
@hominidan maybe, depends on how much. Im going to sell out of the market to be objective
@MarcusAbramovitch Yeah but if it weren't for running the FTX scam, they wouldn't have been.