This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory by August 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Several US politicians have called for this including Lindsay Graham and Nikki Haley.
Related questions
Can I make a market that uses the same resolution criteria as this one, with a different ending date? (it'd be conditional too)
Coming closer!
"Biden has approved plans for multiday strikes in Iraq and Syria against multiple targets, including Iranian personnel and facilities, according to U.S. officials. But the response, expected to begin as soon as this weekend, will be “tiered,” mixing military actions with other steps that can be adjusted to signal that Washington doesn’t seek further escalation."
https://archive.is/https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/shadow-war-with-iran-risks-turning-into-a-direct-conflict-6b8eddd9