This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hakeem Jeffries receives the most votes in the first vote for a new Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy was ousted. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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@SemioticRivalry @NicoDelon I’m tempted to bet heavy YES, but I’d appreciate it if either of you would share you’re reasoning why you’re betting no (especially since the prediction markets are not absolutely decided on who will be speaker). Jeffries did get more votes when he was against McCarthy in January, despite that being the first time in a hundred years, and it seems the race between Scalise and Jordan might not be settled after the GOP conference if chaos continues to reign.
@parhizj it would be surprising if they went to the floor without a consensus candidate who has won the conference election
@SemioticRivalry Jim Jordan agrees?
This seems to imply though if there is not a consensus candidate this week, then it seems unlikely they will go to the floor of the house for the vote this week. I don’t know if there is sufficient bipartisanship to rescue the Republican disunity for a more moderate candidate as pundits have suggested. So I have created a market to see whether there will be a vote this week:
@parhizj I don't feel all that confident in an early vote, but yes Jordan is right there. There is literally no reason to hold floor votes that you are going to lose. McCarthy did it because he just wanted to browbeat his remaining opponents into submission on live television. I don't expect the next Speaker to have such strident opponents, they can be dealt with before a vote.
@SemioticRivalry Well you got that prediction about them keeping it in conference wrong! It turns out the Republicans this year are all about chaos.
@parhizj yeah, jordan called for a floor vote a couple days ago and it became pretty clear they weren't gonna win. i did make 4k in this market in a similar question though https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-e9ba3e1a0f3b