Who will win the January 2025 Speaker of the House election?

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Ṁ14k

resolved Jan 3

100%99.0%

Mike Johnson

0.3%

Hakeem Jeffries

0.0%

Kevin McCarthy

0.1%

Elon Musk

0.1%

Tom Emmer

0.1%

Tom Cole

0.1%

Steve Scalise

0.1%

Jim Jordan

0.2%Other

This question is a combination of "who will win the House in 2024" and "how solid will Johnson's grasp of the Republican caucus be."

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#119th Congress

#Speaker of the House election

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bought Ṁ1,000 NO

Republicans very likely to have control of the house so Jeffries very unlikely.

Remains to be seen whether Johnson remains speaker or Republicans choose someone else.

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