Will the next Speaker of the House be elected on the first ballot?
resolved Oct 17

Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House is elected on the first ballot, otherwise NO.

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predicted NO

Resolve this market please

This market is a good lesson in the difference between the optimal political strategy and the likely political strategy. One that PI has taught many many times.

I cannot believe this came to the floor without there being enough votes. A pol needs to know how to do one thing: count. And Jordan can't, which demonstrates his unfitness.

bought Ṁ4,000 of NO

resolves NO

sold Ṁ606 of NO


predicted NO

@ChrisGillett Why did you sell? :O

predicted NO

Close it it up

I should have stayed in this market instead of betting on Taylor Swift and the Cowboys.

predicted YES

A few hours until the first vote, apparently…

How many Republicans will vote against Jim Jordan?

predicted YES

@SimonGrayson Are you telling me Jordan is so daft as to force people to publicly vote against him? What a party!

predicted YES

The longer this goes on, the more likely YES seems, but the market isn't moving.

I'm long on First Ballot being the only ballot.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Republicans are clearly in the the pocket of @acc for this market

bought Ṁ10 of YES


predicted NO

Close and pay

predicted YES
predicted YES

this is a good market.

predicted YES

I'm struggling to understand the scenario where anyone wants this fight to be in public. Why call for voting on the floor unless the result is certain?

predicted YES

@FrederickNorris They want to beat the 15 tries McCarthy took to get the spot 😂 (quick someone make a market lol)

predicted NO

@FrederickNorris Peacocks gotta peacock?

Some GOP House members are secretly sleeper cell agents for the Democrats and they've finally been activated to take down the party from the inside

predicted YES

@dittopoop Trump was a Democrat. I still think he tries to run 2028 as Dem just to be a dick if he doesn't get the 2024 bid or win.

predicted YES

@FrederickNorris Im pretty sure they can't proceed without a speaker. It's a way to show that they are trying to elect one. Shows who's voting with or against. Possibly use that to show that they aren't the vote that is preventing a speaker from being elected.
If you imagine this wasn't occurring, what would the public think or what would the media or opposing party say? not trying to actually work, dragging their feet, not taking the job seriously, etc.

predicted NO

@FrederickNorris You are using too much logic

predicted NO

@SirCryptomind You may be onto something. No idea why Scalise would want to go through this publicly.

predicted NO

@FrederickNorris Even when they try to do it behind closed doors, it’s public anyway