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(never mind)

@EricBolton made one that is more inline with this, I read this one that way too.

Will the next speaker of the house be elected on the first ballot (of which they cross a 100 vote threshold)

50% chance. This question will resolve YES if the next speaker of the house is elected having never received more than 100 votes in a previous ballot. Otherwise it will resolve NO. Jordan, McCarthy, and Jeffries would therefore not qualify as they have each received more than 100 votes in a previous ballot, but not enough to win.

Resolve this market please

This market is a good lesson in the difference between the optimal political strategy and the likely political strategy. One that PI has taught many many times.

I cannot believe this came to the floor without there being enough votes. A pol needs to know how to do one thing: count. And Jordan can't, which demonstrates his unfitness.

resolves NO

EZ

@ChrisGillett Why did you sell? :O

Close it it up

I should have stayed in this market instead of betting on Taylor Swift and the Cowboys.

A few hours until the first vote, apparently…

How many Republicans will vote against Jim Jordan?

@SimonGrayson Are you telling me Jordan is so daft as to force people to publicly vote against him? What a party!

The longer this goes on, the more likely YES seems, but the market isn't moving.

I'm long on First Ballot being the only ballot.

Republicans are clearly in the the pocket of @acc for this market

..

Close and pay

@MarkHamill wut

a similar/correlated market

https://manifold.markets/KnowNothing/who-will-get-the-most-votes-in-the-7024797d3b0b

Who will get the most votes in the next vote for House Speaker?

In the case of a tie, the winnings will be split equally between the winners. (if Manifold doesn't allow me to do that, winnings will go to whoever's last name is first alphabetically. If there are any names you want me to add, suggest them in a comment.

this is a good market.

I'm struggling to understand the scenario where anyone wants this fight to be in public. Why call for voting on the floor unless the result is certain?

@FrederickNorris They want to beat the 15 tries McCarthy took to get the spot 😂 (quick someone make a market lol)

@FrederickNorris Peacocks gotta peacock?

Some GOP House members are secretly sleeper cell agents for the Democrats and they've finally been activated to take down the party from the inside

@dittopoop Trump was a Democrat. I still think he tries to run 2028 as Dem just to be a dick if he doesn't get the 2024 bid or win.

@FrederickNorris Im pretty sure they can't proceed without a speaker. It's a way to show that they are trying to elect one. Shows who's voting with or against. Possibly use that to show that they aren't the vote that is preventing a speaker from being elected.
If you imagine this wasn't occurring, what would the public think or what would the media or opposing party say? not trying to actually work, dragging their feet, not taking the job seriously, etc.

@FrederickNorris You are using too much logic

@SirCryptomind You may be onto something. No idea why Scalise would want to go through this publicly.

@FrederickNorris Even when they try to do it behind closed doors, it’s public anyway