Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the winner of the 2026 California gubernatorial election is a member of the Republican Party. If any other candidate wins, or if the election is canceled, the market will resolve to NO.

The election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026. The market will resolve once the official results are certified and published by the California Secretary of State.

The market may resolve early if major media outlets (such as the Associated Press, NBC News, or CNN) project a winner, provided the outcome is uncontested. If the election is legally challenged or a recount is triggered, resolution will be delayed until a certified winner is officially declared.

Background

The 2026 California gubernatorial election will determine the successor to incumbent Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited. Following California's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, the general election matchup is set between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton.

California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger's re-election in 2006.

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