This market resolves YES if Montana CI-132 (CI-132 amends the Montana Constitution to require that judicial elections remain nonpartisan.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Simple majority of votes cast on the question (Mont. Const. art. XIV §9)

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Judicial elections must stay nonpartisan under the constitution.

• NO: Nonpartisan judicial elections remain a matter of statute that the Legislature could change.

Results: resolves on the result certified by Montana Secretary of State / State Board of Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/wpfd/preview_files/CI-132(3a70e31b2fe58baa619ffb1d9b23c8ff).pdf