This market resolves YES if Montana CI-133 (CI-133 amends the constitution to secure the fundamental right of initiative and referendum from interference by the government.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Simple majority of votes cast on the question (Mont. Const. art. XIV §9)

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Initiative/referendum becomes a fundamental right (Art. II §37) subject to strict scrutiny, with process guarantees.

• NO: Initiative and referendum process continues under current constitution and statutes.

Results: resolves on the result certified by Montana Secretary of State / State Board of Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/wpfd/preview_files/CI-133(ba9d97da675a9f26f24b5f9e333b35b7).pdf