This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump.
As of market creation on March 28th, the averages for the states listed are updated through March 26th and all show Trump in the lead.
If Biden is shown in the lead at any point in a state's polling average from March 26th to October 31st, that state resolves Yes. Otherwise, all remaining states resolve No after the graph is updated for October 31st.
As of market creation, these are the averages:
Pennsylvania - Trump +0.2 (Biden last lead March 11th)
Michigan - Trump +3.5 (Biden last lead October 3rd)
Arizona - Trump +5.2 (Biden has not lead since average began)
Georgia - Trump +5.2 (Biden has not lead since average began)
North Carolina - Trump +4.4 (Biden has not lead since average began)
See also: