This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump on November 1st at Noon Pacific Time.

Any state in which Trump is leading resolves Yes, any state in which in which his losing resolves No. In the case of a tie, resolves based on the next non-tie update to the average.

As of market creation on 3/15, these are the averages:

• Pennsylvania - Trump +0.6

• Michigan - Trump +3.5

• Wisconsin - Trump +1.0

• Nevada - Trump +5.6

• Arizona - Trump +5.2

• Georgia - Trump +5.7

• North Carolina - Trump +5.5

See also:

• /ManifoldPolitics/which-swing-states-will-trump-be-be

• The Swing State Dashboard

• The Polling Dashboard