Will Trump beat Biden in these swing state polls on November 1st?

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resolved Jul 21

Resolved

N/A

Michigan

Resolved

N/A

Wisconsin

Resolved

N/A

Pennsylvania

Resolved

N/A

Nevada

Resolved

N/A

Arizona

Resolved

N/A

Georgia

Resolved

N/A

North Carolina

This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump on November 1st at Noon Pacific Time.

Any state in which Trump is leading resolves Yes, any state in which in which his losing resolves No. In the case of a tie, resolves based on the next non-tie update to the average.

As of market creation on 3/15, these are the averages:

Pennsylvania - Trump +0.6
Michigan - Trump +3.5
Wisconsin - Trump +1.0
Nevada - Trump +5.6
Arizona - Trump +5.2
Georgia - Trump +5.7
North Carolina - Trump +5.5

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@mods n/a

What happens here if Biden is no longer running on November 1st?

The question says "November 1st". The election is on November 5, so that makes every answer NO.

See the description: “polls” means RCP not the election

Ah. OK. "Polls" has two meanings; people say "Go to the polls," or refer to "polling places", so I thought you were referring to the election. Thank you for clarifying.

reposted

If Trump wins the states where he's ahead by 5% or more as of market creation, he's at 268/270 electoral votes needed to win:

Then he just has to pick up any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

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