Will Trump beat Biden in these swing state polls on May 1st?

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Ṁ18k

resolved May 1

Resolved

YES

Wisconsin

Resolved

YES

Pennsylvania

Resolved

YES

Michigan

Resolved

YES

Nevada

Resolved

YES

Arizona

Resolved

YES

Georgia

Resolved

YES

North Carolina

This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump on May 1st at Noon Pacific Time.

Any state in which Trump is leading resolves Yes, any state in which in which his losing resolves No. In the case of a tie, resolves based on the next non-tie update to the average.

As of market creation on 3/15, these are the averages:

Pennsylvania - Trump +0.6
Michigan - Trump +3.5
Wisconsin - Trump +1.0
Nevada - Trump +5.6
Arizona - Trump +5.2
Georgia - Trump +5.7
North Carolina - Trump +5.5

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#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ608
2		Ṁ354
3		Ṁ272
4		Ṁ160
5		Ṁ131

6 Comments

60 Holders

264 Trades

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@ManifoldPolitics Can you resolve this now?

@Joshua Can you resolve these? I think it will bump me up to first place in my league. ;-)

@TimothyJohnson5c16 leagues count unrealized profit, doesn't matter

@nikki The markets were at 97-99%, but I needed the last couple percent to put me over the top.

RCP now has polling average graphs up, so we can see the history of the prices! I've made two new markets that resolve based on if Biden passes Trump on any day before the deadline:

@ManifoldPolitics And here are the graphs:

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