Will Trump beat Biden in these swing state polls on May 1st?
60
238
3.7K
May 1
35%
Pennsylvania
68%
Wisconsin
81%
Michigan
84%
Arizona
85%
Nevada
87%
Georgia
92%
North Carolina

This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump on May 1st at Noon Pacific Time.

Any state in which Trump is leading resolves Yes, any state in which in which his losing resolves No. In the case of a tie, resolves based on the next non-tie update to the average.

As of market creation on 3/15, these are the averages:


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RCP now has polling average graphs up, so we can see the history of the prices! I've made two new markets that resolve based on if Biden passes Trump on any day before the deadline:

@ManifoldPolitics And here are the graphs: