Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00Here's what I wrote about this race in the latest Manifold newsletter!
Florida: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) vs. Sen. Rick Scott (R)
Democrat win chances (Manifold, 44 traders): 10% (it’s been 18% and 27% at other points today)
Expert forecasts: Likely R (Cook), Likely R (Sabato), Likely R (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): R+5; Scott 48.2%, Mucarsel-Powell 43.5%
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: R+0.1 (Scott vs. Nelson)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+13 (Nelson vs. Mack)
Recent Florida presidential election results: Trump+3 (2020), Trump+1.2 (2016), Obama+0.9 (2012)
Manifold commentary (from Discord, I couldn’t find any on the website):
Gabrielle: Interesting Senate predictions from The Hill, they're seeing FL as more likely Dem than MT … And notably they give Dems better odds in FL than in TX
SemioticRivalry: Montana is and always has been likely R, bordering on safe. as is florida
there's no way they beat Rick Scott in this environment
if anyone disagrees i have a million mana and nothing to spend it on
Conflux commentary:
What is it about the Florida Senate race that makes it seem so hopeless and devoid of energy? It was a virtual tie in 2018, as you can see, but Florida has been drifting away from Democrats. In 2022, Marco Rubio won his Senate race by a 16-point margin. A prestigious New York Times poll for the presidency showed Trump winning by 13 in the state, and Manifold gives a 38% chance that Trump will win Florida by more than 8 points (a bet that Keith Rabois could have made with Nate Silver after their Twitter feud).
But sometimes, in elections, trends don’t continue. Often, there is reversion to the mean, where an outlier result — like Republicans in 2022 — does not shape the future trend. Rick Scott is leading Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the polls by about 5%, but that is within a normal polling error. Even if people don’t talk about it, Democrats aren’t out of the woods in Florida. Still, the most likely outcome is a clear reelection of Scott.
As this article was in the process of being revised, there was some activity on the market. Gabrielle bet it up to 27%, toward the Hill figure, but Semiotic brought it down to 18%. I tend to agree with Semiotic on this.