Nate Silver recently offered to bet $100,000 against Keith Rabois that Trump would not win Florida by 8 or more points:
Will this bet actually happen? Resolves YES when both parties confirm that the loser has paid the winner at least $100,000, or credible reporting confirms this fact.
Resolves NO when:
-Either party backs out of the bet before signing a legally binding contract (or something equivalent), and does not "rejoin" the bet within a week of backing out
-A party is able to avoid paying even after signing a contract.
-Discussion of this bet between Silver and Rabois dies off before the bet is finalized-i.e. one of them doesn't respond to or talk about the bet for a week.
- They keep talking about it until the election, but a contract/whatever isn't finalized and the loser doesn't pay out.
I will not bet on this market. If something happens that falls outside the stated conditions, I will use my judgement to resolve the market in the way that best matches the question in the title.
1,000
3.00More clarifications: If discussion of this bet between Silver and Rabois dies off before the bet is finalized-i.e. one of them doesn't respond to or talk about the bet for a week, this will resolve NO. Will also resolve NO if they keep talking about it until the election, but a contract/whatever isn't finalized and the loser doesn't pay out.
tldr; This should all be what you would likely intuitively expect.
https://x.com/rabois/status/1842210855523402030
He's sticking to his guns on twitter, unclear if he'll actually take the bet. Lots of people in his replies harassing him to take the bet.