In a recent Twitter exchange, the VC Keith Rabois called Nate Silver a "buffoon" and claimed that the "minimum" Trump win in FL is 8 points (and 10-14 is "more likely"). In reply, Nate challenged him to a $100,000 bet.

This market resolves YES if Trump wins Florida by >8 points, and NO otherwise.

• This market parallels their bet (YES = Rabois wins, NO = Nate wins), but it's separately measuring the same question. E.g. if their bet never happens, that's irrelevant for this market (which resolves based solely on the election results).

• The only relevance of the real world bet is that if there are any resolution disputes, the "spirit of the market" is based on the original intent behind the proposed bet.

• If the result is close, I will wait to resolve until the official vote total has been certified by Florida (2020 example, announcement & totals)

• "Winning by >8 points" is defined as (Trump votes) / (total votes) - ([other candidate] votes) / (total votes) > 0.08 for all other candidates.

Related market: /Ziddletwix/the-grand-keith-rabois-twitter-parl