In a recent Twitter exchange, the VC Keith Rabois called Nate Silver a "buffoon" and claimed that the "minimum" Trump win in FL is 8 points (and 10-14 is "more likely"). In reply, Nate challenged him to a $100,000 bet.
This market resolves YES if Trump wins Florida by >8 points, and NO otherwise.
This market parallels their bet (YES = Rabois wins, NO = Nate wins), but it's separately measuring the same question. E.g. if their bet never happens, that's irrelevant for this market (which resolves based solely on the election results).
The only relevance of the real world bet is that if there are any resolution disputes, the "spirit of the market" is based on the original intent behind the proposed bet.
If the result is close, I will wait to resolve until the official vote total has been certified by Florida (2020 example, announcement & totals)
">8 points" -> (Trump votes) / (total votes) - (alternate candidate votes) / (total votes) > 0.08.
1,000
1.00@Tripping they won't tho. They all have the same exact numbers (all coming from the FEC).
Might have to wait until December for it to be official
@ChinmayTheMathGuy the FEC reports come out like 2 years after the election, are you saying you think they should wait that long
@Tripping bro what u talking about? The election will definitely be determined before the electoral college votes. In 2000 Florida they had Bush by 537 on November 26th.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy determined isn't the issue, the issue is the exact vote totals. If one source has >8 and one has <8 then there's an issue for this market, even if no-one cares about the discrepancy and it's obvious who won
@Tripping e.g. popular vote total for biden in 2020, the October 2022 FEC report has it as 81,283,501, the CNN results have it as 81,284,666, 270towin have it as 81,268,867, the Cook Political Report have 81,282,916, ABC have 81,283,098, etc etc everyone is different
@Tripping Yup totally fair question, will pre-register a source in a bit! (Don't think it'll impact much for short term betting but of course agreed that it's best to have a default set in advance).
Only exception is if we hear more about Nate's bet, & they use a specific source, I'll likely switch to that. However, I'm assuming their bet won't happen/we won't hear those details so I need to pick one for ourselves.
@Tripping I donโt see a problem with waiting till December for the final totals if itโs close. Thereโs going to be just one official number - even the Bush vs Gore election had one consecrated as official by the state of Florida.
@Tripping Ok looking into this now. From what I can tell, there will be a "certified" vote total for Florida pretty soon after the election. E.g. in 2020, Florida certified the vote total on November 17th. In that case, the margin of 371,686 reported at the time matches the official results linked to by Wikipedia, on results.elections.myflorida.com. (It helps that Florida is a state that counts votes quite quickly).
So if I simply say "certified vote total", AFAIK, I don't think there will be any serious ambiguity, and in the case of a close call it can still resolve fairly quickly. It also aligns with Polymarket:
This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Florida has certified the vote.
If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
LMK if anyone thinks there are edge cases where that might still not be clear.
there's already more than enough liquidity from limit orders but i'll upgrade this to Plus anyways to smooth things out
Keith Rabois will unfortunately probably chicken out of this bet so I will pick it up on his behalf. Willing to bet up to 60k mana with the first party to commit to take the other side and agree on terms. I don't have the mana on hand but unlike Keith I'm not a payment risk and have followed through on previous bets (e.g w/ @benshindel https://manifold.markets/benshindel/will-i-win-my-bet-against-david-abo )
@Ziddletwix Ben was first and we already have logistics set up from our first bet so he's got first dibs, but we can work something out if it falls through
@dlin007 there are plenty of limit orders already exceeding your bet. I'll put another 5k at 50%.
@becauseyoudo yeah but dlin doesn't have 60k mana available to bet. the idea is to find someone who will agree on it despite potential non-payment risk
(or he just really wants to take the bet at the original odds on principle, but i'm assuming it's about liquidity. but yeah anyone who wants to mirror rabois' bet with mana can ofc get much better odds here, and would probably be easy to find a counter party for a much larger amount)