What should we do with M60,000? [Futarchy]
36
750Ṁ2029
Oct 15
52%
Claude plays manifold markets.
Resolved
N/A
distribute to YES holders on this answer, proportional to shares
Resolved
N/A
Split it between @realDonaldTrump and @Geofry
Resolved
N/A
Make a Manifold Black Market
Resolved
N/A
Send it to @Tumbles
Resolved
N/A
Send it to @121 :3
Resolved
N/A
Ask the discord
Resolved
N/A
60K mana was insufficiently motivating. Bet whole prize on coin flip 4 times, then run Million Mana Challenge
Resolved
N/A
Put all of it on NO in the next binary market with >50k liquidity
Resolved
N/A
Make "What will happen today?" markets
Resolved
N/A
Coin flip
Resolved
N/A
Invest it in RISK
Resolved
N/A
Weekly Mini-Challenges (Same challenges from the original @ManifoldChallenge, except on a weekly individual basis.)
Resolved
N/A
Start a new Manifold EA forum where we create markets to predict the future of humanity.
Resolved
N/A
Issue Manifold awards (best market, best trade, best trader, best market creator etc.)
Resolved
N/A
Crane Tank [Read Description]
Resolved
N/A
Make a Manifold Government
Resolved
N/A
Make Manifold TV
Resolved
N/A
Make a new Manifold/prediction market platform
Resolved
N/A
Double it repeatedly using sockpuppets and unresolved markets

The Manifold Challenge (/ManifoldChallenge/introducing-the-manifold-challenge) did not get 7 contestants, so we have to figure out what to do with our Ṁ60k! In traditional Manifold fashion, we will decide using futarchy!

In a week:

  1. The market will close.

  2. Whichever option has the highest percentage in a week will be decided as the use for the Ṁ60,000.

  3. All other options will resolve N/A.

  4. A month after the start of the new use for the mana, a poll will be released judging whether it was successful. If the majority of votes are YES, the remaining option will resolve likewise. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.

Ideas that need further description:

  • Nations of Manifold is a game where we group "citizens" (users) into nations with different political systems and use KPIs to test which system works best, prize is distributed among members of the most successful nations.

  • Manifold's Got Talent is a game show where people submit videos of their talents and the winner is decided using futarchy

  • Crane Tank (Manifold Shark Tank) is a program where people can invest in Manifold ideas like high-liquidity markets, game shows, startups, etc.

  • Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The option "distribute to YES holders on this answer, proportional to shares" will be resolved N/A to prevent manipulation and is not eligible to win.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
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sold Ṁ10 NO

@traders "Claude plays Manifold" was the winner

bought Ṁ10 NO

@realDonaldTrump prompt injectors, start your engines. 60k in prizes!

bought Ṁ50 YES

I dont have the computer skill to do it, but

"Claude plays manifold markets"

A public thing is set up where an AI chat bot is given the 60,000 and asked every day how to allocate some bets based on the trending markets on manifold, to see how a chat bot compares to human traders.

@ManifoldChallenge Extremely wise investment.

@retr0id :sigh: guaranteed bet yes to 99% last seconds using the api and getting all the mana right?

@121 Please don't do this. Everyone will only put up a great limit wall NO at 99% and punish you.

@Chumchulum Yes, I mean @retr0id might try

@121 Resolving it N/A just in case

@121 It's boring and less enticing to new users than any other option.

Can I have my 3000 mana back?

@Geofry Yes, sent

@Geofry who's begging for their mana now

@NivlacM I needed it.

bought Ṁ20 YES

The Manifold Challenge is sponsored by @SirSalty, @Manifold, @AmmonLam. Significant contributions include @Bayesian and @Eliza, and other contributors include @evan, @jim, @strutheo, @crowlsyong, @realDonaldTrump, and @Geofry. Everyone I tagged can add answers. Make sure to bet on this.

bought Ṁ5 YES
bought Ṁ50 YES

@ManifoldChallenge Great idea!

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