Will 2022 will be warmer than 2021?
Will 2022 will be warmer than 2021?
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Ṁ2176resolved Mar 30
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YES1D
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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022
Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The updated vox future perfect's predictions:
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/31/23509593/2022-predictions-macron-bolsanaro-covid-inflation-unemployment-climate-change-olympics
@ManifoldMarkets Yes, just adding the link for other people's reference, sorry should have mentioned that. I have no opinion on how it should resolve.
@ManifoldMarkets In my opinion, KP is wrong to suggest this was an easy win, considering how close 2022 ended up being to 2021.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
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