Democrats lose both houses of Congress in 2022
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resolved Nov 30
Resolved
NO
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Politics #Democrats #2022
US Politics
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2022 Matt Yglesias Predictions
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predictedNO

Why isn't this resolved?

predictedNO

538 currently give 48%: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

predictedYES
predictedNO

FiveThrityEight gives 37% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

predictedYES

Seems the same as https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-democrats-lose-their-majoritie

predictedNO

Given that the Democrat just won Alaska's special House election, 43% seems way too high.

predictedNO

Dropped to 25% on 538.

@Treldman Actually I just realized that the outcomes are likely not independent and so it doesn't make sense to multiply their individual probabilities together (Rs win house and senate). That being said, 538's model gives the Rs both chambers 33% of the time.

538 currently has this at 28%

Relevant PredictIt market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election
538 puts this at 52%
This market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
Allow me to advertise my market where you can arbitrage this and other markets about US 2022 congressional election outcomes https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/balance-of-power-in-us-congress-aft
Yep, free money
Free money.
Betting the predictit number
It'll happen. Republicans are leading polling.

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