Resolves based on the total number of attendees & guests of honor at Manifest 2023, the inaugural forecasting & prediction market conference hosted by Manifold.
Buy tickets: manifestconference.net/tickets
Join the discord: https://discord.gg/sVwRY65ZRj
You can also bet on a more specific market:
@ThisProfileDoesntExist Unfortunately, we didn't keep a great count during the event :P. My (Austin's) best guess is 250, though we have some wide error bars on this, it could easily have been +/- 30 attendees. Think we're safe to go with 201-300 though.
@ManifestConference agreed. my best guess is also somewhere around 250; i’d be really surprised if the total count was <200 or >300 (<10% chance total)
@Shump The actually present number of attendees. I think we'll be pretty confident about the number based on eg # badges handed out, at least enough to choose one of these buckets.
@BTE manifest is actually short for manifestival! we were initially considering calling it that (we own the domain manifestiv.al!) but decided that the three-syllable theme, with manifold & manifund, was better. plus, now we can make puns & stuff about manifesting the future!
nb that most of the “we” in this case was austin
@ManifestConference Another update: we're currently at about ~20 speakers, ~20 invitees, and ~80 other tickets :)
@ManifestConference Final update: about ~25 speakers, ~45 invitees, and ~211 other tickets (8 supporter, 93 main, 110 students)
I am a bit surprised to see Robin Hansen getting invited and featured at Manifest despite him not even having the time to sign up for Manifold prior like a month ago when asked in person by @DavidChee