Resolves based on the total number of attendees & guests of honor at Manifest 2023, the inaugural forecasting & prediction market conference hosted by Manifold.
Buy tickets: manifestconference.net/tickets
Join the discord: https://discord.gg/sVwRY65ZRj
The original market on this question (linked below) had buckets with ranges of 100 people; we made it before we knew a lot of the specifics. Now, it's looking pretty likely that the attendance will be somewhere between 200 and 400 — or at least, the original market is saying ~83% as of the time of this writing (Thurs Sept 14 5:46pm PT). So here's a more specific market!
Original market:
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currently: 310 total guests, composed of ~25 guests of honor, ~60 invitees, 109 paid tickets, and 110 students :D






























