How many people will attend Manifest 2023? [MORE SPECIFIC]

703

Ṁ10k

Ṁ4k

resolved Nov 17

ALL

34%8%

226-250

24%0.6%

201-225

19%65%

251-275

9%0.3%

176-200

7%18%

276-300

4%0.4%

0-175 [fewer than or equal to 175]

2%5%

301-325

1%1.4%

326-350

0%0.7%

> 400 [more than equal to 401]

0%0.9%

351-375

0%0.4%

376-400

manifestconference.net

Resolves based on the total number of attendees & guests of honor at Manifest 2023, the inaugural forecasting & prediction market conference hosted by Manifold.

Buy tickets: manifestconference.net/tickets
Join the discord: https://discord.gg/sVwRY65ZRj

The original market on this question (linked below) had buckets with ranges of 100 people; we made it before we knew a lot of the specifics. Now, it's looking pretty likely that the attendance will be somewhere between 200 and 400 — or at least, the original market is saying ~83% as of the time of this writing (Thurs Sept 14 5:46pm PT). So here's a more specific market!

Original market:

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ239
2		Ṁ101
3		Ṁ84
4		Ṁ82
5		Ṁ74

17 Comments

42 Holders

200 Trades

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i'm resolving this to the confidence that @Austin , @SirSalty , and i had that each of the buckets was true. i took the average of the log odds for each of our estimates (made independently) and resolved each bucket to the %PROB of those log odds. let me know if you have questions/want clarification!

@saulmunn I don’t think it’s showing up as resolved

@MarkHamill should be now. sorry about the late resolution!

@saulmunn any update on this?

@Capresis thanks for the ping!

i'm now working on it, i'll keep you updated. i (and @Austin ) were pretty disappointed with our systems for counting things, so it might take a few days to figure this out.

@Capresis resolved. take a look here for my resolution process. lmk if you have questions/concerns!

there’s a chance i’ll have to N/A this market, since i took a pretty poor count of exactly how many people came :(

@saulmunn I thought I talked to one of the volunteers that was in charge of the official count? Total number of badges grabbed minus replacement badges or something?

@saulmunn Can you resolve proportionately to the possible categories rather than NA it?

@Shelvacu yeah, except it’s slightly more complicated than the layout you have (what about blanks?), & we lost track of some of the numbers at the end

@BenjaminShindel i could, but this would be “saul’s subjective estimate.” i’m going to spend some more time ~next week, when i have more time, digging through various spreadsheets & stuff to see if i can get as accurate an estimate as possible.

@saulmunn I’m happier with a subjective estimate resolved proportionately as to what you think is possible than with an N/A which would roll back all profits on the market altogether, tbh