Resolves based on the total number of attendees & guests of honor at Manifest 2023, the inaugural forecasting & prediction market conference hosted by Manifold.
Buy tickets: manifestconference.net/tickets
Join the discord: https://discord.gg/sVwRY65ZRj
The original market on this question (linked below) had buckets with ranges of 100 people; we made it before we knew a lot of the specifics. Now, it's looking pretty likely that the attendance will be somewhere between 200 and 400 — or at least, the original market is saying ~83% as of the time of this writing (Thurs Sept 14 5:46pm PT). So here's a more specific market!
Original market:
1,000
3.00i'm resolving this to the confidence that @Austin , @SirSalty , and i had that each of the buckets was true. i took the average of the log odds for each of our estimates (made independently) and resolved each bucket to the %PROB of those log odds. let me know if you have questions/want clarification!
@saulmunn I thought I talked to one of the volunteers that was in charge of the official count? Total number of badges grabbed minus replacement badges or something?
@Shelvacu yeah, except it’s slightly more complicated than the layout you have (what about blanks?), & we lost track of some of the numbers at the end
@BenjaminShindel i could, but this would be “saul’s subjective estimate.” i’m going to spend some more time ~next week, when i have more time, digging through various spreadsheets & stuff to see if i can get as accurate an estimate as possible.
@saulmunn I’m happier with a subjective estimate resolved proportionately as to what you think is possible than with an N/A which would roll back all profits on the market altogether, tbh
@BenjaminShindel yeah, that checks out. i didn’t even realize it was possible to resolve multichoice markets to PROB, lol
@Shump @benshindel should be resolved now, see here for my resolution process. lmk if you have questions/concerns!