How many people will attend Manifest 2023?
resolved Oct 4

Resolves based on the total number of attendees & guests of honor at Manifest 2023, the inaugural forecasting & prediction market conference hosted by Manifold.

Buy tickets:
Join the discord:

You can also bet on a more specific market:

Get แน€600 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

Why hasn't this resolved yet? Surely you should have the final count by now?

@ThisProfileDoesntExist Unfortunately, we didn't keep a great count during the event :P. My (Austin's) best guess is 250, though we have some wide error bars on this, it could easily have been +/- 30 attendees. Think we're safe to go with 201-300 though.

@ManifestConference agreed. my best guess is also somewhere around 250; iโ€™d be really surprised if the total count was <200 or >300 (<10% chance total)

70 badges left unclaimed as of today.

from discord:

go bet on a more specific version of this market:

I bought Tix for three friends who were marginal on coming before hand

Is this about the actually present number of attendees or about the number of people who have tickets? Is it even possible to count the people actually present?

@Shump The actually present number of attendees. I think we'll be pretty confident about the number based on eg # badges handed out, at least enough to choose one of these buckets.

@Austin also, we're likely to be checking ppl off as they check in, or something similar.


Why is this not called the manifestival...

@AugustSha Because Manifest plays on the idea of manifesting the future you forecast.

@AugustSha I am guessing.

@BTE manifest is actually short for manifestival! we were initially considering calling it that (we own the domain!) but decided that the three-syllable theme, with manifold & manifund, was better. plus, now we can make puns & stuff about manifesting the future!

nb that most of the โ€œweโ€ in this case was austin

sold all my shares

To inform your trading: Manifest currently has ~10 speakers, ~10 other invitees, and ~60 tickets for supporters, main, and students

@ManifestConference Another update: we're currently at about ~20 speakers, ~20 invitees, and ~80 other tickets :)

@ManifestConference Another update: about ~20 speakers, ~25 invitees, and 104 other tickets :)

@saulmunn Another update: about ~20 speakers, ~30 invitees, and ~160 other tickets :)

@ManifestConference Final update: about ~25 speakers, ~45 invitees, and ~211 other tickets (8 supporter, 93 main, 110 students)

100-200 at 4% is interesting. I'd guess the free tickets have a high-ish no-show rate. Feels possible that 80/281 people might not show up?

I'd also guess 300-400 is over-valued at 39%, but ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ.

@jayharris a lot of kids at our school are probably going

I am a bit surprised to see Robin Hansen getting invited and featured at Manifest despite him not even having the time to sign up for Manifold prior like a month ago when asked in person by @DavidChee

There's like, 8 people in that discord. That's a potluck, not a conference.