How many people will attend Manifest 2023?
165
closes Oct 1
0-100
0.2%
101-200
0.4%
201-300
95%
301-400
3%
401+
1.8%

manifestconference.net

Resolves based on the total number of attendees & guests of honor at Manifest 2023, the inaugural forecasting & prediction market conference hosted by Manifold.

Buy tickets: manifestconference.net/tickets
Join the discord: https://discord.gg/sVwRY65ZRj

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How many people will attend Manifest 2023? [MORE SPECIFIC]
Sort by:
NikitaSokolsky avatar
Nikita Sokolskybought Ṁ100 of 201-300 YES

70 badges left unclaimed as of today.

jayharris avatar
Jay Harrisbought Ṁ50 of 301-400 NO

from discord:

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munn

go bet on a more specific version of this market:

StrayClimb avatar
Calvinball

I bought Tix for three friends who were marginal on coming before hand

Shump avatar
Shump

Is this about the actually present number of attendees or about the number of people who have tickets? Is it even possible to count the people actually present?

2 replies
Austin avatar
Austin

@Shump The actually present number of attendees. I think we'll be pretty confident about the number based on eg # badges handed out, at least enough to choose one of these buckets.

ManifestConference avatar
Manifest Conference

@Austin also, we're likely to be checking ppl off as they check in, or something similar.

-saul

AugustSha avatar
August Sha

Why is this not called the manifestival...

4 replies
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@AugustSha Because Manifest plays on the idea of manifesting the future you forecast.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@AugustSha I am guessing.

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munn

@BTE manifest is actually short for manifestival! we were initially considering calling it that (we own the domain manifestiv.al!) but decided that the three-syllable theme, with manifold & manifund, was better. plus, now we can make puns & stuff about manifesting the future!

nb that most of the “we” in this case was austin

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munnsold Ṁ11 of 301-400 YES

sold all my shares

ManifestConference avatar
Manifest Conference

To inform your trading: Manifest currently has ~10 speakers, ~10 other invitees, and ~60 tickets for supporters, main, and students

6 replies
ManifestConference avatar
Manifest Conference

@ManifestConference Another update: we're currently at about ~20 speakers, ~20 invitees, and ~80 other tickets :)

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munn

@ManifestConference Another update: about ~20 speakers, ~25 invitees, and 104 other tickets :)

ManifestConference avatar
Manifest Conference

@saulmunn Another update: about ~20 speakers, ~30 invitees, and ~160 other tickets :)

ManifestConference avatar
Manifest Conference

@ManifestConference Final update: about ~25 speakers, ~45 invitees, and ~211 other tickets (8 supporter, 93 main, 110 students)

jayharris avatar
Jay Harrisbought Ṁ20 of 301-400 NO

100-200 at 4% is interesting. I'd guess the free tickets have a high-ish no-show rate. Feels possible that 80/281 people might not show up?

I'd also guess 300-400 is over-valued at 39%, but 🤷‍♂️.

8 avatar
Trong

@jayharris a lot of kids at our school are probably going

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

I am a bit surprised to see Robin Hansen getting invited and featured at Manifest despite him not even having the time to sign up for Manifold prior like a month ago when asked in person by @DavidChee

BioS avatar
Bio Sbought Ṁ50 of 201-300 NO

There's like, 8 people in that discord. That's a potluck, not a conference.

Joshua avatar
Joshua

Anyone who might want to split accommodation costs should DM me!

SneakySly avatar
SneakySly

I will probably go!

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munn

arbitrage with: