Resolves based on the total number of attendees & guests of honor at Manifest 2023, the inaugural forecasting & prediction market conference hosted by Manifold.
Buy tickets: manifestconference.net/tickets
Join the discord: https://discord.gg/sVwRY65ZRj
You can also bet on a more specific market:
Related questions


Is this about the actually present number of attendees or about the number of people who have tickets? Is it even possible to count the people actually present?

@Austin also, we're likely to be checking ppl off as they check in, or something similar.
-saul

@AugustSha Because Manifest plays on the idea of manifesting the future you forecast.

@BTE manifest is actually short for manifestival! we were initially considering calling it that (we own the domain manifestiv.al!) but decided that the three-syllable theme, with manifold & manifund, was better. plus, now we can make puns & stuff about manifesting the future!
nb that most of the “we” in this case was austin

To inform your trading: Manifest currently has ~10 speakers, ~10 other invitees, and ~60 tickets for supporters, main, and students

@ManifestConference Another update: we're currently at about ~20 speakers, ~20 invitees, and ~80 other tickets :)
@ManifestConference Another update: about ~20 speakers, ~25 invitees, and 104 other tickets :)

@saulmunn Another update: about ~20 speakers, ~30 invitees, and ~160 other tickets :)

@ManifestConference Final update: about ~25 speakers, ~45 invitees, and ~211 other tickets (8 supporter, 93 main, 110 students)
100-200 at 4% is interesting. I'd guess the free tickets have a high-ish no-show rate. Feels possible that 80/281 people might not show up?
I'd also guess 300-400 is over-valued at 39%, but 🤷♂️.


I am a bit surprised to see Robin Hansen getting invited and featured at Manifest despite him not even having the time to sign up for Manifold prior like a month ago when asked in person by @DavidChee

There's like, 8 people in that discord. That's a potluck, not a conference.





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