70 badges left unclaimed as of today.

from discord:

go bet on a more specific version of this market:

I bought Tix for three friends who were marginal on coming before hand

Is this about the actually present number of attendees or about the number of people who have tickets? Is it even possible to count the people actually present?

@Shump The actually present number of attendees. I think we'll be pretty confident about the number based on eg # badges handed out, at least enough to choose one of these buckets.

@Austin also, we're likely to be checking ppl off as they check in, or something similar.

-saul

Why is this not called the manifestival...

@AugustSha @ManifestConference

@AugustSha Because Manifest plays on the idea of manifesting the future you forecast.

@AugustSha I am guessing.

@BTE manifest is actually short for manifestival! we were initially considering calling it that (we own the domain manifestiv.al!) but decided that the three-syllable theme, with manifold & manifund, was better. plus, now we can make puns & stuff about manifesting the future!

nb that most of the “we” in this case was austin

sold all my shares

To inform your trading: Manifest currently has ~10 speakers, ~10 other invitees, and ~60 tickets for supporters, main, and students

@ManifestConference Another update: we're currently at about ~20 speakers, ~20 invitees, and ~80 other tickets :)

@ManifestConference Another update: about ~20 speakers, ~25 invitees, and 104 other tickets :)

@saulmunn Another update: about ~20 speakers, ~30 invitees, and ~160 other tickets :)

@ManifestConference Final update: about ~25 speakers, ~45 invitees, and ~211 other tickets (8 supporter, 93 main, 110 students)

100-200 at 4% is interesting. I'd guess the free tickets have a high-ish no-show rate. Feels possible that 80/281 people might not show up?

I'd also guess 300-400 is over-valued at 39%, but 🤷‍♂️.

@jayharris a lot of kids at our school are probably going

I am a bit surprised to see Robin Hansen getting invited and featured at Manifest despite him not even having the time to sign up for Manifold prior like a month ago when asked in person by @DavidChee

There's like, 8 people in that discord. That's a potluck, not a conference.

Anyone who might want to split accommodation costs should DM me!

I will probably go!

arbitrage with: