MANIFOLD
Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ82
2027
32%
chance

Resolves Yes if a Major Source confirms the samples brought back by Chang'e-6 suggest there are economically viable amounts of any rare earth elements.

lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), promethium (Pm), samarium (Sm), europium (Eu), gadolinium (Gd), terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), holmium (Ho), erbium (Er), thulium (Tm), ytterbium (Yb), lutetium (Lu), scandium (Sc), and yttrium (Y)

Example of "major source"

Agencies: NASA, CSA, ESA, ISRO, CNSA, JAXA

Companies: SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galatic, Rocket Lab

Publications: Nature, Science, Astronomy & Astrophysics, The Astrophysical Journal

ETC: Any major news network/Government.

  • Update 2026-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the close date arrives without a resolution answer, the close date will be extended rather than resolving NO.

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If the close date arrives without an answer, does this resolve NO?

@LarsOsborne Close Date will be extended.

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