This market will resolve identically to the PredictIt market. In no case will this market resolve before the PredictIt market.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8239/Will-the-government-shut-down-on-Oct-1
PREDICTIT RULES:
This market shall resolve to Yes if, subsequent to the launch of this market and by the End Date listed below, the Federal Government is in what is described by media sources, determined by PredictIt to be reliable, as a full or partial government shutdown.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 10/01/2025 11:59 PM (ET)
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ8,162 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4,670 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3,001 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2,389 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,687 |
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Confirmed for tonight.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/09/30/government-shutdown-senate/
@DavidFWatson Issue with this is that it's not clear how PredictIt will rule. The rules are truly awful. I'd imagine they'll probably rule if a "real" shutdown involving furloughed workers happens, however a funding lapse for a few hours may also make this market go Yes if PredictIt rules that way.
@Mana I created this market so people can bet on both the shutdown, and due to the rule ambiguity, how PredictIt will rule.