78% chance. This market will resolve purely based on my opinion. If I hear a story and think it's some crazy shit, this resolves YES. Only events that happen during the shutdown will be considered, starting at midnight eastern time. I will not bet in this market. If the shutdown is extremely brief (less than 18 hours) or never happens, this resolves N/A. For the purposes of this question, the shutdown itself is not crazy shit, the length of the shutdown is not crazy shit, the firings that the Trump admin has threatened are not crazy shit, and the shutdown ending is not crazy shit. Anything that's solely related to the shutdown is extremely unlikely to be crazy shit. Please remember Rule 0: Don't do any crimes to get yourself a Yes resolution. For reference: Last week resolved YES, due to the Comey indictment (but should probably have resolved because of the autism announcement). The week of 9/15 resolved YES, due to the whole Jimmy Kimmel fiasco. The week of 9/7 would obviously have resolved YES, because of Charlie Kirk getting assassinated. The week before that (week of 8/31) would have resolved YES, because of the frankly bonkers extrajudicial bombing of a retreating boat. The week before that (week of 8/24) would have resolved NO, despite the Ascension church shooting. The week before that (week of 8/17) would have resolved YES, because of that whole crazy debacle with one of Eric Adams' staffers trying to bribe a reporter with cash in a chip bag. I might resolve based on stories posted in the comments, but local/regional news, such as "Florida Man" style stories, are unlikely to get a YES resolution. Stories that have happened before, recently, at roughly the same scale (such as further extrajudicial boat bombings) are unlikely to resolve yes, though there are potential exceptions (like, say, another assassination, or an indictment of Joe Biden). Similarly, things that are expected or have already been announced are less likely to resolve yes. If I am for whatever reason unable to resolve, this resolves based on a 48-hour Manifold poll. Because I know shutdown-related markets almost always have edge cases about what counts as a shutdown, the shutdown begins at midnight EDT on October 1st, and ends when the Associated Press or Fox News announces Trump has signed the spending bill, whichever is earlier.