Will Elon Musk try and use an AI model to sway people towards a political ideology before 2031?
Basic
6
Ṁ113
2031
23%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Elon Musk has been significantly involved in the deployment of a model which has been intentionally altered to sway a large number of people towards a certain political ideology.

In order for this question to resolve as YES, the model must be deployed between January 1st 2025 and January 1st 2031, and strong evidence relating to the model's persuasive behavior at scale must become publicly known between these dates.

  • Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - People must interact directly with the AI at scale to influence political ideology. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Arguably Twitter/X's recommendation algorithm counts

@spiderduckpig yes, good point. I'll give this some thought and add some criteria to nuance this

Does him using grok to write a right wing xeet count?

@TheAllMemeingEye hmm, no it has to be people interacting directly with the AI at scale

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