Could you specify which definition of AGI you are using, and how much contribution to his efforts it must give? e.g. would him using it to write an email to save a few minutes while he is otherwise trying to stay in power count?

@TheAllMemeingEye following the definition of AGI in this question: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

Let's say, effort has to include at least 100 kWh of inference compute (with an AGI-class model) for this question to resolve as YES.

@MalachiteEagle do you happen to know how one could figure out the power usage of an online AI model one has used?

@TheAllMemeingEye I think that will be easy to do retrospectively in 2100. Running an H100 for 1 hour is about 0.7 kWh

@MalachiteEagle also unfortunately remni's definition doesn't mention which percentile of human performance needs to be reached (e.g. 0th, 50th, 100th etc), which did you have in mind?

@MalachiteEagle wait why is this resolving several decades after we are likely dead?

@TheAllMemeingEye I think that it will start to get very hard for any of us to ascertain what's really going on once we're past 2027

@TheAllMemeingEye trying to resolve this question in 2029 would likely be too difficult

@MalachiteEagle how about 2031? Significant time after the period concerned but not like a literal lifespan away, and if new reliable info comes to light then it can be re resolved as needed

@TheAllMemeingEye I exist only to serve