Background

Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned from his position as Minister of National Security in protest of the Gaza ceasefire deal. He has indicated that his party would return to Netanyahu's coalition if Israel resumes its war with Hamas.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if Ben-Gvir is officially reinstated to his position as Minister of National Security before new elections are officially called in Israel. It will resolve NO if:

• New elections are officialy called before Ben-Gvir returns to his position

• The current government serves its full term without Ben-Gvir returning to his position.

Considerations

• The timing of new elections in Israel is uncertain and could be called at any time due to coalition instability.

• If Ben-Gvir is appointed to a different ministerial position, this market will resolve NO.

• The current date for the next elections is 27th of October 2026, but elections are almost always called before that. If elections are not announced to be earlier then that, this market will resolve as NO on the day of the elections (if Ben Gvir didn't return as the minister until then.

• The market will resolve as YES once he returns to be the minister, even if he stops being it afterwards.

• Update 2025-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Knesset Approval Requirement:

  • The market will only resolve YES when Ben Gvir is officially reinstated after being approved by the Knesset.

  • Any reappointment that has not yet received Knesset approval is not considered an official reinstatement.