
By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?
28
1kṀ14422026
81%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?
93% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
84% chance
Will we have an open-source model that is equivalent GPT-4 by end of 2025?
82% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will a language model comparable to GPT-4 be trained, with ~1/10th the amount of energy it took train GPT-4, by 2028?
92% chance
Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?
84% chance
Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025
16% chance
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
95% chance
Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?
37% chance
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?
2026