By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone? | Manifold

By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?

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Are y'all betting on inference being much cheaper or iPhones being much better?

predictedYES

@NivlacM Model size at same performance coming down by a lot. There are currently models with 7-30B parameters that are in the ballpark of GPT-3.5 quality (which was likely ~175B params) https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

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By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

Will we have an open-source model that is equivalent GPT-4 by end of 2025?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Will a language model comparable to GPT-4 be trained, with ~1/10th the amount of energy it took train GPT-4, by 2028?

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025

Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

Related questions

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

Will we have an open-source model that is equivalent GPT-4 by end of 2025?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Will a language model comparable to GPT-4 be trained, with ~1/10th the amount of energy it took train GPT-4, by 2028?

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025

Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

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