By 2024, a significant fraction of philosophers (>20%) take seriously the notion that language models with a size and architecture similar to GPT-3 are partially conscious
23
520Ṁ1016
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Will be judged extremely subjectively based on where the industry discussion is at and informed by any relevant surveys. I will try to be as fair as possible.

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predictedYES

Resolved No because I am yet to see a philosopher arguing for anything more serious than "we have no reason to automatically dismiss that GPT-3 is conscious, we do not know"

Do panpsychists count?

predictedYES

@adele Good question but no

Could you tell us appropriately what fraction of current philosophers meet your threshold, and what number you'll consider to be a "significant fraction" for resolution?

predictedNO

"Approximately", not "appropriately".

Really wish we could edit or delete our comments.

@IsaacKing Significant would here be >20% as stated in the question. Right now I would estimate that it's <1%.

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