By 2024, a significant fraction of philosophers (>20%) take seriously the notion that language models with a size and architecture similar to GPT-3 are partially conscious

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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resolved Jan 2

Resolved

NO

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1W

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ALL

Will be judged extremely subjectively based on where the industry discussion is at and informed by any relevant surveys. I will try to be as fair as possible.

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predicted YES

Resolved No because I am yet to see a philosopher arguing for anything more serious than "we have no reason to automatically dismiss that GPT-3 is conscious, we do not know"

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Do panpsychists count?

predicted YES

@adele Good question but no

bought Ṁ1 of NO

Could you tell us appropriately what fraction of current philosophers meet your threshold, and what number you'll consider to be a "significant fraction" for resolution?

predicted NO

"Approximately", not "appropriately".

Really wish we could edit or delete our comments.

@IsaacKing Significant would here be >20% as stated in the question. Right now I would estimate that it's <1%.

By 2024, a significant fraction of philosophers (>20%) take seriously the notion that language models with a size and architecture similar to GPT-3 are partially conscious, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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More related questions

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data.

By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?

By 2025, we will have made an artificial system that is judged with high likelihood (>80%) to have some sort of conscious experience

Artificial consciousness will emerge in the course of increasing AI capabilities

By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

ChatGPT (Or LLMs really) have discovered regularities in language that humans are not aware of

New Year's Resolutions 2024 questions

Will franky get any upgrades in Egg head??

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Related questions

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

By 2025, we will have made an artificial system that is judged with high likelihood (>80%) to have some sort of conscious experience

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

Artificial consciousness will emerge in the course of increasing AI capabilities

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?

By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data.

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?

ChatGPT (Or LLMs really) have discovered regularities in language that humans are not aware of