By 2024, a significant fraction of philosophers (>20%) take seriously the notion that language models with a size and architecture similar to GPT-3 are partially conscious
23
520Ṁ1016resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will be judged extremely subjectively based on where the industry discussion is at and informed by any relevant surveys. I will try to be as fair as possible.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will certain contemporary publicly available GPT models be generally accepted as conscious at inference time by 2100?
31% chance
Will OpenAI announce a model with a name containing the string "GPT-4b" in 2025
16% chance
By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?
93% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
35% chance
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
95% chance
Will language models, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2025
69% chance
Will *both* rapamycin.news and crsociety.org be incorporated into a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025?
51% chance
Will a language model comparable to GPT-4 be trained, with ~1/10th the amount of energy it took train GPT-4, by 2028?
92% chance
Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
91% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance