When will the next generation-defining LLM be released?
7
58
290
2025
16%
By end of May 2024
36%
By end of June 2024
66%
By end of August 2024
73%
By end of October 2024
71%
Before Year End 2024
35%
Not by Year End 2024

When will the next Large Language Model be released that has an LMSYS Arena Elo of at least 1334; 75 points better than the current leader?

As of the 22nd of April, 2024 there are 4 models with an Arena Elo between 1249 and 1259 according to the LMSYS leaderboard: 3 versions of GPT-4 and 1 version of Claude 3 Opus. The highest rated GPT-3.5-Turbo version has an Elo of 1119, 46 points behind the lowest GPT-4 version (0613 for both), while the 0314 versions of these models have an Elo gap of 82 points. Thus, a 75 point gap would represent a breakthrough and a new generation of LLMs.

Elo will be evaluated 1 week after the dates shown. If 1334 is within the top contender's confidence interval, l'll wait 1 additional week and resolve based on the Elo then.

https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard

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bought Ṁ10 By end of May 2024 YES

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