Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if, between June 23, 2025, and June 30, 2025, inclusive, the United States engages in any new military, economic, or diplomatic actions specifically targeting Iran. This includes, but is not limited to:

• Military actions: Airstrikes, troop deployments, or other offensive operations.

• Economic actions: Implementation of new sanctions or significant changes to existing sanctions.

• Diplomatic actions: Formal statements indicating a shift in policy, withdrawal from negotiations, or other significant diplomatic measures.

The market resolves to "No" if no such actions occur within the specified timeframe.

Background

As of June 22, 2025, the United States conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—under "Operation Midnight Hammer." (apnews.com) These strikes were part of a coordinated effort with Israel, which had initiated attacks on Iranian targets earlier in June. (en.wikipedia.org)

Following the airstrikes, Vice President Vance stated that the U.S. has "no interest" in deploying ground troops in Iran, emphasizing a desire to avoid prolonged conflict. (axios.com) However, President Trump has indicated that further actions could be considered if Iran retaliates or if diplomatic efforts fail. (apnews.com)

Considerations

• Potential for escalation: While current statements suggest a reluctance for further military involvement, the situation remains fluid. Traders should monitor official communications from the U.S. government and credible news sources for any developments.

• Iran's response: Iran has condemned the recent airstrikes and vowed retaliation. (apnews.com) Any Iranian actions could influence U.S. decisions and impact the resolution of this market.

• International dynamics: Reactions from other nations, including allies and adversaries, may also play a role in shaping U.S. policy decisions in the coming days.

Traders are advised to stay informed through reliable news outlets and official statements to assess the likelihood of further U.S. involvement in Iran before the end of June 2025.