If from now until Inauguration Day we have a financial markets' panic (stock market, bond market, volatility, dollar) going risk-off due to the increasing realization that Trump is the Republican nominee and that the election is a coin-toss, this market resolves to YES.

I'll rely on the financial media calling it that way. In particular, I'll rely on Bloomberg's John Authers newsletter and FT Alphaville, but also the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and the Vital Knowledge investment newsletter. A panic will be called if any of these conditions are valid:

• The S&P 500 is in a 10% drawdown in less than 45 days

• The 2y treasury is a 50bps drawdown in less than 45 days

• The 10y treasury is a 75bps drawdown in less than 45 days

• The DXY is up 7% in less than 45 days

• The VIX Index is above 35

Then having a panic being called, I'll rely on my own judgement as also the wording of the above mentioned financial media participants to determine whether it was triggered by Trump's election.

I won't bet.

EDIT: Actually, I am betting. @Joshua gently agreed to be a 3rd party adjudicator on this market and I'll abide by his call if any controversy arises. What constitutes a panic is well defined, therefore, it's just a matter of presenting evidence that the financial media is attributing it to Donald Trump.

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