In 2022, the United States created export controls of many things semiconductor, including semiconductor capital equipment like those produced by Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA Tencor to the People's Republic of China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China

This market resolves to YES if a new directive expands significantly the breadth of the export control restrictions. For example, if they were to reach nodes above 10nm.

Recently, Secretary Raimondo called the new Huawei Mate P60 incredibly disturbing and sparked theories that the U.S. may extend these restrictions, given that it seems that SMIC reached 7nm using only equipment that is allowed to be exported.

Why Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is calling Huawei’s new phone ‘incredibly disturbing’

U.S. officials are worried that a new cutting-edge chip from Huawei undermines Washington’s tech controls on China.

I'll rely in:

• The price reaction of AMAT, KLAC, LRCX stocks

• Wording of the mainstream financial press (WSJ, FT, etc)

• Wikipedia descriptions

I may bet on this market.